Upon finishing the Microsoft Press Conference, I was left with the impression that MS was doing a poor grab for some of Nintendo's target audience while pseudo-shafting their current audience.
The Kinect has enough novelty to come across as offering something different, but the first-party titles seem like remakes of Wii games and therein, I think, lies the rub. What sold many on the Wii was Wii Sports and a good price point, and with the few interesting games being third-party games (i.e., probably won't be pushed as heavily by MS) that require expensive components (including the 360 and game) to access, there seems little incentive to jump in.
As for core gamers, announcing more of the same CoD, Halo, and GoW is okay, but things like DLC exclusivity are a gamer shaft. And despite the big push, Kinect comes across as an unconvincing toy, that come across as an unwanted distraction in the few hobbyist titles they interface with.
The Wii captured the attention of such a wide audience but it seemed a shame that they did a poor job connecting users with new game experiences and each other through a more robust online interface. It's ironic to think that the 360 has the infrastructure to benefit that audience but no real lure to attract them, and might even risk alienate their core audience in the pursuit.